Wisconsin GDP in Q1

Wisconsin GDP has recovered largely in line with the US, but the bifurcation in economy remains.

Figure 1: US GDP relative to 2019Q4 peak (black), Wisconsin (red), Minnesota (blue), all relative to 2019Q4, in logs. Source: BEA, GDP by state release, and author’s calculations.

Mirroring the employment trends, the sectoral divergence remains.

Figure 2: Wisconsin Manufacturing GDP (blue, left log scale), accommodation and food services GDP (red, right log scale). Source BEA GDP by state release.

Manufacturing output is 2.6% above 2019Q4 levels, while accommodation and food services output is 2.1% below.

The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index suggests continued growth into April (May numbers on 6/29). May employment growth was very slow, however.

Figure 3: Wisconsin GDP in Ch.2012$ (blue), coincident index (red), both in logs, relative to 2019M11. Source: BEA GDP by state release and Philadelphia Fed.